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2006 Stanley Cup Final Preview

Even though the weather outside doesn’t make you think about hockey, the Stanley Cup finals start tonight. The match must be a complete nightmare for Gary Bettman, the commissioner of the NHL. Edmonton hasn’t been a marquee team since Wayne Gretzky was traded to Los Angeles, and people don’t exactly think of hockey when they hear North Carolina. The TV ratings will be dismal, although that’s nothing new for the league. It will be a good series though. Both teams have absolutely crazy fans who will be gone, and they both play an exciting brand of hockey.

I’ve lived in Calgary most of my life, so writing about Edmonton is like a New Yorker praising the Red Sox, or a Michigan fan speaking highly of the Buckeyes. An Edmonton win will kill me (My Canada doesn’t include Edmonton), but at least, according to the odds, they’ll have to come from behind to do it. The Hurricanes are lukewarm -140 favorites to win the series, but you can make a solid case for either team to win. The series is eerily reminiscent of the last final – a feisty and overachieving team from Alberta riding a hot goaltender into a matchup against a solid and offensively talented southern-based team. Last time my Flames gave it a valiant effort, but were finally outmatched. It remains to be seen if history repeats itself.

Here are eight factors to consider when making your plays in this series:

1) Rested or rusty? – Edmonton defeated Anaheim in five games, giving them nine days off before the playoffs began. That time allowed them to heal injuries and overcome the flu, which badly affected the team in the last series. It also left them caught in the chaos that sweeps Edmonton and the media attention in Canada (and elsewhere to a lesser extent). We will know quickly which factor will affect the team more. They’ve been riding a wave of momentum so far, but can that momentum survive a lull for that long? New Jersey swept the Rangers in the first round, took a week off, then lost to Carolina in five. They looked like a different team altogether. Anaheim crushed Colorado in four straight, but then the Ducks fell with barely a charlatan against Edmonton. They had eight days off. The precedent is not good.

2) Best defenseman – Chris Pronger is, hands down, the best defenseman on the ice in this series. Although he had an inconsistent first season in Edmonton, and a terrible showing for Canada at the Olympics, Pronger is playing like the beast he is in the playoffs. He has immobilized the opposing offensive threats in all three series so far – Pavel Datsyuk, Joe Thornton and Teemu Selanne. He averaged an incredible 31 minutes per game, and is the clear favorite for the Conn Smythe for playoff MVP if Edmonton wins. He’s impressive in his own zone, but he also forechecks incredibly well, and he has 17 points in 17 games. Carolina will have to find a way to contain Pronger, or avoid him, if they want to win.

3) Best Forward – Not only is Eric Staal the best forward in this series, he is the top finalist and is quickly becoming one of the handful of top players in the league. He is an offensive machine, and he creates a difficult matchup for any team. Pronger will be all over him like a glove, and Staal has yet to face a defenseman of his caliber this postseason, so how he responds to that will be telling, and key to Carolina’s fate. He’s only 21, so his response to that attention and the pressure of the series will be key, but he’s passed all the tests up to this point. Interesting note – both Pronger and Staal were selected by the Carolina/Hartford franchise second overall in the draft – Staal in 2003 and Pronger 10 years earlier.

4) Veteran presence – Both teams have added veterans this year to stabilize the team and add the calming presence they needed to get where they are. The new players complemented long-time team members in both cases. In Edmonton, Michael Peca and Pronger joined team captain Jason Smith and gritty fan favorite Ryan Smyth. Carolina added former Oiler Doug Weight and Mark Recchi to help Rob Brind’amour, who is having a great postseason, keep the locker room in line. Neither side will have an advantage, then, when it comes to staying positive if things start to go badly.

5) Goaltending – The goaltending situation could not be more different for the two teams. The Oilers picked up Dwayne Roloson from Minnesota at the trade deadline. He was terrible for the rest of the season, but was incredible in the playoffs. He’s 36, so he shaved by the time Cam Ward, 22, of Carolina was born. Martin Gerber was the starter coming into the playoffs, but Ward got his shot and made the most of it. He was the goaltender of the future for Carolina, and the future is apparently here. Neither team has a real advantage unless the starters struggle or get injured. Gerber can easily step in for Ward and the team won’t suffer much if at all, while Edmonton’s backup situation is a disaster.

6) Special teams – It’s a battle of the titans setting up when Edmonton gets a penalty, which they are much more likely to do than Carolina. The Hurricanes have the best power play in the playoffs, while Edmonton has surpassed every other team when it comes to penalty killing. Obviously, both squads will not be able to succeed. Whichever side comes out and sets the tone early will affect the series. Edmonton can avoid the situation by showing more discipline than they have so far, but that is unlikely given their aggressive style of play.

7) Home ice advantage – Both arenas are as loud as any in the league, so the home team should have an edge. Carolina has taken advantage of home cooking, going 6-1 since dropping its first two games at home against Montreal. To make things interesting, Edmonton was strong on the road. They went 6-3, including three wins in Anaheim. The ice in Carolina will be terrible – soft and unpredictable – so Carolina could have an advantage there, like Tampa Bay did in 2004. Carolina has the home ice advantage to start the series, if they can take advantage of that, they should be able to. come out ahead

8) Underlooked players – Both teams have players who don’t get the ink to match their play. Cory Stillman has 19 points in 18 games for Carolina. His presence meant teams couldn’t focus on Staal. His experience and presence are just as valuable as his offense, too. Stillman is defending his Cup victory with Tampa Bay in 2004. For Edmonton, the pleasant surprise was Shawn Horcoff, their number 1 center who has 17 points in 17 games. He continues to play the game he discovered this season. Both players will be key to their team’s success, and whoever plays better could make the difference in the series.

The opinions expressed in this article are not necessarily those of Doc’s NHL selection service.

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