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Good News for Gold
If you ever get the chance to camp near an old gold or silver mine, take it. I did years ago. Not only is it a great experience, but it has also made me a better metals investor.
Why? Well, there’s nothing like seeing long-dead, abandoned mine workings with your own eyes. You realize, in a visceral way, that someone did a best-guess calculation of supply and demand decades ago – and guessed wrong.
This has also been the case in recent years, with gold prices very low since 2011.
But that is about to change…
My camping trip was a spur-of-the-moment thing. I was in Reno for a conference. My friend had a topo map of some old mines in the high desert of the Santa Rosa Mountains, about four hours north.
We drove up, camped in the middle of the sagebrush, and the next morning, hiked our way up a steep mountainside to a small plateau. There we found the mine entrance (closed with dynamite), an old wooden cabin and other fallen remains of the operation.
We also found the “power plant” of the mine: the long-rusted skeleton of a Model T, sitting on blocks. Instead of wheels, it had large conveyor belt spindles bolted to its axles!
It’s a long distance, in terms of time and technology, from that old mine to the huge, industrial, massive live gold mines that dot northern Nevada today.
But the long multi-year cycles of supply and demand, boom and bust, remain. And while few outside the industry are still talking about it, the seeds for the next boom are already in the wind.
The reason has to do with global production.
According to industry insiders, leading investment bankers and others, 2015 will be the peak year in world gold production.
If you believe the common idea that more supply equals lower prices, then that’s the bad news.
The good news? Those same sources say production is much lower in 2016 and beyond.
Nevada’s gold mining statistics tell a small part of the story.
Last month, the state division of minerals summed up its gold production statistics for 2014: It fell to 4.9 million ounces, the lowest in 27 years.
But here’s the bigger trend: Nevada’s total production actually peaked in 1998 at nearly 9 million ounces. Since then, gold production has declined in 12 of the last 17 years.
What’s going on? In short, the areas with the highest quality ores were all systematically excavated. And since Nevada contributes most of the US gold production, the US production data tells a similar story.
The statistics of Australia and South Africa are very similar. Gold production in South Africa peaked in 1970. Australia peaked in 1997.
For a long time, production from China and Russia filled the gap.
But with gold prices very low, more mines closing and gold mining companies wisely avoiding new projects, the “production cliff” (as some analysts call it) is finally on our doorstep…
Goldman Sachs, in a report in March, sees only “20 years of known mineable reserves of gold” left in the world. The bank noted fewer and fewer discoveries of new gold deposits since 1995.
Earlier this month, analysts at the National Bank of Canada told The Financial Post, “It’s not about if or even when the output cliff will happen. It’s really about how companies respond.” According to the bank, world production of gold will decline sharply in the next few years.
Likewise, an analyst at Grant Thornton told AustraliaMining.com that “2015 will be the peak in world gold production.”
Hidden Gold Buffer
So if all that is the case, you say, why haven’t we seen higher prices yet?
One big reason is the influence of “junk gold” on the world market. All those fused earrings, bracelets and dental fillings make up a major source of supply – as much as 36% in 2011 and 2012.
But that source is also constantly drying up. In 2014, only 28% of the world’s gold supply came from recycled sources. The World Gold Council noted that the supply of recycled gold has reached its lowest level since 2007.
Those trends remain in 2015. The group says that the supply of recycled gold fell 3%, and another 8%, in the first two quarters of the year (on a year-on-year basis).
Supply Crunch Will Lead to Higher Prices
Here’s a final point: It takes time for new information to filter into any marketplace. The boom in gold prices? That is already old news, fully discounted in the price of the metal and its miners.
But what is it that most people still don’t realize (and would hardly believe if you told them)? The golden “production cliff” fits the bill. As new data confirms the forecast, look for this to be a major new catalyst for gold prices in the coming quarters.
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