How To Reduce Pollen Allergies In My 3 Year Old Football Betting – End-of-Season Games

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Football Betting – End-of-Season Games

Everyone loves a trier, especially when it comes to getting your gear ready. There is nothing more annoying for punters than realizing that your selection was “not off” and that you didn’t even get a good run for your money.

Covered television coverage and greater transparency of betting exchanges have raised awareness of the “non-trier” problem in horse racing, but even football punters need to be on their guard. It is clear that all is not well in the world of football, judging by the recent match scandal in Germany involving referee Robert Hoyzer, ongoing investigations into some Italian results and irregular betting patterns on shady matches European and international.

Fortunately, the consistency of the results in the bigger leagues (and especially in England) indicates that there is no reason for the lack of punter confidence. The main problem – as in horse racing – is around the margins, in those parties (or races) that are not subject to the full glare of the media spotlight and where skulduggery is less likely to arise suspicions

All very tried

However, my research suggests that the “non-trier” problem rears its ugly head toward the end of the season, even in the major leagues. Most leagues are competitive enough to ensure that they go right down to the wire in the battles for championships, places in Europe and safety from relegation.

But, inevitably, some teams have nothing left to play for in the final weeks of the season, which is where the problems can arise.

The final weekends of a league season feature three types of matches:

1. Matches between two teams with nothing to play for.

2. Match between two teams with something to play for.

3. Matches between a team with something to play for and a team with nothing to play for.

Out of focus

The commitment of either team cannot be taken in the first category, so the most sensible betting strategy towards the end of the season is to focus on categories two and three.

Matches in the second category should be evaluated using your usual techniques. (Anyone who doesn’t know need to read our football betting articles on inside-edge-mag.co.uk – Ed), but the best betting opportunities are often found in category three, where there is always the potential for a “non-trier”. ‘.

This is not to suggest that something under the hood is going on in these games, just that a slight drop in focus from a team can make the difference in a competitive league like the English Premiership.

There could be many reasons for this decrease in focus – including the widely held view that some players are “on their holidays” before the end of the season. It is equally likely that, given the demands of modern football, a player who has carried an injury will be rested once his team has nothing left to play, or that there may be some ease in training sessions. Whatever the reasons, our results at the bottom of this article show that a team with something to play for is more likely to win a match against a team with nothing to play for.

Across the top three English divisions and the major European leagues we analyzed (Spanish League, German Bundesliga and French Ligue 1), these games generally produce a 50-60% win rate for the team with something to play for, and a victory rate of 20-30% for the team with nothing to play for. The stats vary a bit from year to year and league to league, but are generally pretty consistent.

It is a bone of contention that such figures offer conclusive proof of the non-trier effect, but there is a crucial piece of supporting evidence that changes the issue for me. If there was no link between results and a team’s urgent need for points in such matches, we would expect a higher win rate among the top teams than those struggling near the bottom, since that’s what happened during the rest of the match. season In fact, the win rate of the teams fighting to avoid relegation is abnormally high in such games at the end of the season – practically on par with the win rate achieved by the teams at the top of the table they are chasing titles, places in Europe. or play-off slot.

Struggle for survival

For example, the last five seasons of the English Premiership have produced a 55% win rate for teams with something to play for. This figure does not vary, it does not matter whether the team is in the top six or in the top six.

It’s a similar story in other leagues, although the win rate of relegation-threatened teams in such matches tends to be slightly lower overall than that achieved by teams near the top of the table.

So, do these statistics alone offer a good betting opportunity? The simple answer is no, but there are some touches of refinement that can put these figures to a good advantage.

Let’s look at the big picture first. A win rate of 55% would give a tidy profit margin if the average odds available were even, but this is unlikely to be the case in games where one team has something to play for and the other team does not.

Taking the games that fell into this category last season in our featured leagues, a level bet on all teams with something to play for would have brought a small loss. This is due, in part, to the lower than average win rate of the past season by these teams, but a more significant factor is the reduced probability that punters are asked to accept in such teams.

How to beat the odds

Bookmakers usually influence the “nothing to play” syndrome when pricing end-of-season games, although a few slip through the net. If you are good at making your own book on the matches, you can discover these matches – otherwise, you will find it difficult to make a profit that supports the blind on the teams with something to play.

The counter argument, of course, is that the value lies in backing against these sides, as teams with nothing to play for will be available at artificially inflated odds in such matches. This doesn’t hold water, however, due to the lower win rate of these teams. The problem for punters, as outlined earlier, is whether these teams will try hard enough – the evidence suggests that, by and large, they won’t.

How, then, can we beat the odds? Well, a little more digging into the statistics puts more flesh on the general assumptions often made about late-season games.

Starting at the top, the end-of-season records of the league champions are very revealing. There is clear evidence that, once a title has been secured arithmetically, there is a general tendency for the champions to take the foot off the gas. Last season, for example, the Spanish and German champions were confirmed with two games to play – Valencia and Werder Bremen, the respective winners, then immediately lost their last two games.

This is far from an isolated example. In 2001, Manchester United lost their last three games, after running away with the title, although it must be said that they had finished with four consecutive victories when in the same position the previous season.

In general, however, the record of already crowned champions suggests that they are prone to decline once the race is won. In the leagues analyzed here, the winning rate of the champions over the course of the season usually exceeds 60%.

Once the title was secured, however, this dropped to an average of 57% over the last five seasons. And the drop is even more dramatic in games where they face a team with something to play for – their win rate then averages just 45%.

A ton of profit

In general, therefore, it is worth opposing already crowned champions. Last season, in the leagues presented here, this approach would have yielded a profit of 24% at the stake level. If you only focused on the games where the opposing team still had something to play for, the strike rate in opposition to the champions would have been 100% and the profit a whopping 125% at the stake level.

The only warning is to be aware of any factor that can cause the champions to keep the pressure – an example is Arsenal last season, when they were champions of the Premiership with four games to go, but they wanted to keep their unbeaten record. They did so, but with only a 50% win percentage in their last four games (two wins, two draws).

Another factor could be when a lower division team is chasing a landmark like 100 points – this was the case with Wigan Athletic in the former Division Two in 2003, when it reached three figures with two wins and a draw, even if they were. already champions.

Knowing that champions walk away once they have nothing to play for, it’s easy to assume that already relegated sides must be even more prone to it. Again, the reality is more complicated.

Basically

Overall, in the leagues analyzed here, relegated teams have a winning percentage of 23% once they are mathematically condemned – quite close to the average expected by teams in the relegation zone over the course of the season. In other words, don’t give up once all hope is gone.

In fact, relegated teams actually have a surprisingly good home record in the last few weeks of the season. On average, they manage a fairly even breakdown of wins, draws and losses at home and in none of the leagues does their number of home defeats exceed the combined number of wins and draws – making the relegated teams still worth watching Asian handicap in at home, because they will rarely, if ever, give up a start to their opponents.

Where they do a lot of damage is outside the home. Even more markedly, they are usually lambs to the slaughter (home or away) versus teams that still have something to play for. Their loss rate in such matches is 70% and, in the last five seasons, no relegated team has recorded a single win in this type of match in the top leagues in France, England and Germany.

That 70% loss percentage is equivalent to their opponents’ odds around the 2/5 or 4/9 mark. The bookies are stingy on such teams, although they could still have made a profit last season by backing against relegated teams in such matches. With extra selectivity about the odds you are willing to take (no less than 1/2, say), the potential exists to make money on these games.

The teams in the middle of the table is a space to tread warily. While statistics show that punters can generally rely on sides scraping for top spots or fighting against relegation, this is not the case with teams relegated to mid-table for the last few games. of the season, without incentive to advance and without fear. to drop a few places.

The final word

In the leagues analyzed here, the win rate of mid-table teams in their final matches does not look too bad, with an average of 33%, which is largely in line with their overall season record.

The picture is not so rosy, however, when the figures are restricted to games against teams with something still to play. The win rate of safe mid-table teams drops to 26% and their loss rate rises to 49% (from 41% overall).

In the end, end of season bets are all odds available. The price of these games is a difficult process, and it is impossible to come up with hard and fast rules on when to bet or what odds to accept. An appreciation of the underlying statistics is important, however, because late-season games are not governed by the normal rules of form and are a law unto themselves in many cases. The only golden rule is: make sure you know what your selection will prove.

More Football Betting Articles

  • Football Betting – End of Season Matches
  • Football Betting – Betting on the race

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