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Serosurvey Vs Herd Immunity Vs Vaccination In India!
The 4th Serosurvey conducted by the apex medical body ICMR (Indian Council of Medical Research) in June-July 2021 taking more than 28,000 samples in 21 states showed that about 70% of the people of India (including the children) have antibodies, ie. to say, the relative immunity against the infections from COVID-19 – which is a big jump from the 3rd survey done in January-February of this year which showed only about 21% of people who have antibodies. However, the ICMR study does not distinguish antibodies developed due to natural viral infections or due to vaccination in terms of numbers. Coming after the disastrously uncontrollable second wave of COVID-19, which should also lower the result, it is extremely significant: it definitely shows a light of hope regarding India approaching the development of herd immunity, because earlier in 2020 experts said that at least 80% of the population of each country must develop immunity to achieve herd immunity; and that about 70% of people in India hopefully will not have the serious type of the disease, thus reducing hospitalization and possible deaths and possibly lessening the impact of the feared third wave. But the fact remains that at least 400 million of India’s population are still susceptible to infections, dominated by the most infectious variants of Delta, which puts a poor light on the much hyped vaccination drive in India.
Now, the argument proposed against trying to go for herd immunity (including the Government of India) was the fact that at least 80% of the people would be infected and in a country like India even with a lower mortality rate of about 1.5. % the death toll would be enormous and immensely inevitable. It appears that the horrific second wave that no one prepared for has almost achieved that goal, possibly costing millions of lives. We know the official numbers: about 32 million Indians have so far the infections of which about 0.42 million (4.2 Lakh) have died; Vaccination has been done in more than 410 million people so far in terms of only the first dose, and fully vaccinated people represent only about 8% of the population. Even if we consider all the people who take at least one dose and adding to it the naturally infected people who would only have about 440 million people, officially of course, that would leave a large part of the population that developed antibodies out of the 400 millions of susceptible people (the population of India is now around 1.35 billion, and it is not known how. We try to offer our arguments on this apparent paradox (it may not be for experts) why this could have happened.
There was a recent international study that said that India’s COVID-19 deaths have been greatly underestimated, and in current terms it would be 3.4 million in the best case and 4.9 million in the worst case scenario that says in volumes about and possible current infections that raged throughout the country. Although, as usual in all the way, the Government had strongly denied this, there were also disputes regarding the numbers of deaths in states like Madhya Pradesh where the said difference to the actual figure shown amounts to nearly 0.3 million (3 Lakh), in Uttar Pradesh. there were no accounts of the number of dead bodies floating in the river Ganga, which scenario also applies to the state of Bihar, and in Gujarat the number of dead was allegedly manipulated several times and in Karnataka. The state data of the 4th Serological Survey present a very interesting picture in this context.
The level of immunity or rather the seropositivity rate shown by Madhya Pradesh is at 79%, the highest in the country, almost achieving herd immunity. Does this example not show the extent of possible unreported infections and deaths that would occur in unimaginable numbers? Similar scenarios are also seen in Rajasthan (76.2%), Bihar (75.9%), Gujarat (75.3%), Chhattisgarh (74.6%), Uttarakhand (73.1%), Uttar Pradesh (71%), Andhra Pradesh (70.2%), Karnataka (69.8%) and Tamil Nadu (69.2%). However, apart from these states there have been no controversies so far regarding the actual numbers in Chhattisgarh, Uttarakhand and Andhra Pradesh. The states of Odisha which have seen continuous and exponential daily infections, Punjab, Telangana, Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Jharkhand, West Bengal and Haryana have seropositivity rates in the sixties. These states have borne the brunt of infections since the beginning of the pandemic.
Interestingly, again, the frontrunners in the spread of the pandemic, Kerala and Maharashtra have lower immunity rates, in fact, Kerala has the lowest rate of 44.4%, and Maharashtra which has the highest number of infections and deaths in the country has an immunity of 58%. It can be explained as follows: Kerala, which started the pandemic in India, handled the situation very well with effective measures and protocols that thus protect a large number of its people, who also have the highest vaccination rate in the country; but, some aberrations later, regarding the mainly religious appeasement, more and more people are now exposed to the virus and at the moment it accounts for half of the daily national infections; in the case of Maharashtra, the state has maintained the highest level of transparency both in terms of daily infections and deaths – always revising the numbers that add to the backlogs, and therefore here the official numbers are not very different from the current ones. Assam also has a lower seropositivity rate of 50% which may be largely because the state, along with other states in the northeastern region, had been relatively spared in the first wave, but the second wave led by the variant Delta was ripped off. aside
Some personal experience should ideally be added to support our projected scenario of a possible realization of herd immunity, at least in some of the states in the near future. I want to rate the municipal authorities in Maharashtra as the best, always visible, proactive and visit or survey every house in every locality for possible signs of infection and to immediately find the arrangement tests, and for anyone found positive sealed the building instantly forging. strict measures. The state has its own reasons in terms of population density, travel, business and congestion to have the worst spread despite its more efficient control. Even then, I had the first knowledge of many residents who hide or did not test their infections and if those were mild they recovered without anyone knowing – with some of them observing a strict isolation while the Covidiots moved infecting the others, almost knowing.
This unfortunate syndrome of hiding the symptoms of fever, cough or even the loss of the sense of smell and not going for RT-PCR tests has been more visible in many other cities or metro cities compromised where municipal officials they are hardly visible and the infections are treated behind. closed doors through colonies and buildings. I have felt this and witnessed this, and even now it has happened, although to a much lesser extent, that the positivity rates in most parts of the country have fallen below 5%. The impact of this syndrome could well be imagined in the vast rural areas where there were no medical facilities even if some wanted to be tested or treated. The case of asymptomatic carriers is also to be considered.
If we really approach the achievement of herd immunity as we explained the reasons, then this is done the hardest way – at a horrible cost of life and livelihood. If the Government of India had taken the vaccination campaign, which began in January 2021, much more seriously, it would have given all the doses for its citizens, and if it had heeded the warnings about the second wave and taken measures strict, we could have approached the same situation in a more scientific way. and effectively. The risks are not over yet: 400 million people are still exposed to the virus and vaccination has not yet taken off despite the promise, the hype, the breast and the advantage. We still don’t know if the second wave has re-entered and the third wave has started, because the daily numbers are decreasing or increasing every day. I hope that good sense prevails among all governments in view of the fact that the more infectious Delta variant and the still unknown quantity called Delta Plus are still around and can still create havoc, at least in vulnerable states.
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